Is There a Trade-Off between Audience Costs and Diplomatic Success in Crisis Bargaining?

It is conventional wisdom in crisis bargaining literature that the ability of generating higher audience costs is an advantage. However, empirical studies show that democratic states use this mechanism only occasionally. This paper formally shows that higher audience costs may be good or bad depending on (1) the benefit-cost ratio of the crisis, (2) initial probability of resolution, and (3) states’ sensitivities to audience costs. In particular, if the value of the prize over the cost of attacking is low or the initial probability of resolution is high enough, then having greater sensitivity to audience costs undermines democratic states’ diplomatic success. ∗Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Sabancı University, 34956, Istanbul, Turkey. (e-mail: [email protected])